In 2019 Electric vehicle sales are expected to go up by “only” 40%
There are now almost 5 million passenger electric vehicles on the road globally (over 5 million including buses and other commercial vehicles). We expect another 2.6 million to be sold in 2019. This will represent around a 40% growth rate, down from the 70% growth rate in 2018. China will again lead, with some 1.5 million of those sales, representing around 57% of the global market.
China’s market is in transition, and the recent annual doubling of sales every year looks unlikely to hold in 2019. We expect subsidies to be cut in February, but with a phase-out period that lasts until the end of 2Q. The ‘New Energy Vehicle’ quota takes effect this year but the requirements for 2019 are relatively modest. Broader macroeconomic factors (higher interest rates and slowing consumer spending) will also impact global sales. In markets like the U.S. and the U.K., direct purchase subsidies are already starting to wind down.
We expect European EV sales to come in just under 500,000. Growth should be strong in the Nordics and Germany. Sales in Italy have been slow but should start picking up in 2019, while sales in the U.K. will likely be flat or declining after the government eliminated support for popular plug-in hybrid models. North America sales should come in around 425,000, up modestly from 405,000. The Tesla Model 3 surge boosted 2H 2018 sales but the momentum will be difficult to maintain unless a lower-cost model can be introduced quickly. Sales in Japan and South Korea combined should be around 100,000.
– Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport, Bloomberg NEF
There are now almost 5 million passenger electric vehicles on the road globally (over 5 million including buses and other commercial vehicles). We expect another 2.6 million to be sold in 2019. This will represent around a 40% growth rate, down from the 70% growth rate in 2018. China will again lead, with some 1.5 million of those sales, representing around 57% of the global market.
China’s market is in transition, and the recent annual doubling of sales every year looks unlikely to hold in 2019. We expect subsidies to be cut in February, but with a phase-out period that lasts until the end of 2Q. The ‘New Energy Vehicle’ quota takes effect this year but the requirements for 2019 are relatively modest. Broader macroeconomic factors (higher interest rates and slowing consumer spending) will also impact global sales. In markets like the U.S. and the U.K., direct purchase subsidies are already starting to wind down.
We expect European EV sales to come in just under 500,000. Growth should be strong in the Nordics and Germany. Sales in Italy have been slow but should start picking up in 2019, while sales in the U.K. will likely be flat or declining after the government eliminated support for popular plug-in hybrid models. North America sales should come in around 425,000, up modestly from 405,000. The Tesla Model 3 surge boosted 2H 2018 sales but the momentum will be difficult to maintain unless a lower-cost model can be introduced quickly. Sales in Japan and South Korea combined should be around 100,000.
– Colin McKerracher, head of advanced transport, Bloomberg NEF
See the whole report online here: Transition in Energy, Transport – 10 Predictions for 2019 | Bloomberg NEF: BNEF’s 10 Predictions for 2019, encompassing clean energy generally, solar and wind, battery storage, electric vehicles, U.S. natural gas, international LNG, oil markets, digitalization, and energy in China.
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