Cliff Edge
Russian oil production has fallen sharply so far in April, with the monthly average heading to 10 million barrels a day, its lowest since September 2020
Sources: Bloomberg and OilX
April is forecast based on current production trends
Flaring data, combined with anecdotal information from traders and leaks of official Russian statistics, suggest that eight weeks into the war, Moscow is finally succumbing to the impact of government-imposed penalties and companies’ self-sanctions. On average, Russian oil output is down 10% from its pre-war level.
More production losses are likely as Western refiners and traders walk away from Russia upon the expiry of supply contracts in coming weeks.
Declining crude output identified by satellite imagery heralds a longer-lasting increase in oil prices.
See the whole piece on Bloomberg here: The Second Wave of the Russian Oil Shock Is Starting:
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