The Second Wave of the Russian Oil Shock Is Starting

Cliff Edge

Russian oil production has fallen sharply so far in April, with the monthly average heading to 10 million barrels a day, its lowest since September 2020

Sources: Bloomberg and OilX

April is forecast based on current production trends

Flaring data, combined with anecdotal information from traders and leaks of official Russian statistics, suggest that eight weeks into the war, Moscow is finally succumbing to the impact of government-imposed penalties and companies’ self-sanctions. On average, Russian oil output is down 10% from its pre-war level.

More production losses are likely as Western refiners and traders walk away from Russia upon the expiry of supply contracts in coming weeks. 

Declining crude output identified by satellite imagery heralds a longer-lasting increase in oil prices.

See the whole piece on Bloomberg here: The Second Wave of the Russian Oil Shock Is Starting:

#Africa's #Oil & #Gas Comes to #Italy’s Rescue—Will the rest of #Europe be left out?

“Diversification is possible and feasible relatively quickly, shorter than we imagined just a month ago.”

- Mario Draghi, April 17, 2022, in an interview with Corriere della Sera

Italy currently gets about 40% of its gas from Russia, and Draghi has acted quickly to try to replace that supply with flows from elsewhere since President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February.

With Eni already present in more than a dozen countries in Africa, the continent is an attractive option for Italy.