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Monday, June 16, 2025

Is the US Handing Over Venezuela’s Oil Sector to China on a Silver Platter?

Following the reimposition of sanctions on Companies operating in Venezuela, Reuters has already reported that crude that was produced in joint ventures with Chevron has been on its way to East Asia…The only problem is how much PDVSA gets paid, when there is only one buyer on the block—a monopsony.

It is unlikely Chinese companies will be taking over Chevron's operations in the near to medium term. More than anything else, because it does not need that to happen for Beijing to expand its influence and control— ditto for Moscow or Iran.

First, investors have plenty of options before them, from greenfield opportunities to mature fields that only need repairs. Venezuela has thousands of square kilometres with billions of barrels of oil underneath. And most joint ventures are effectively dormant: just 20 out of 64 areas of operation are producing more than 10,000 barrels per day of crude, while most are stuck at 0 or below the 1,000 mark.

Second, regime officials will prefer to keep the fields where Chevron invested for themselves. 240,000 barrels per day is a great business opportunity. This means millions of dollars in contracts for goods and services, that used to be managed by a foreign corporation—not anymore, courtesy of President Trump.

Read the whole article on OilPrice.com here:
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Wednesday, March 12, 2025

‘There was so much promise’: How Northvolt tumbled into bankruptcy

Northvolt attracted $15 BILLION of corporate and government investment to develop technology for electric vehicles to compete with China 

From the Financial Times:

The group — led by two former Tesla managers — tried to open as many as 6 factories at the same time. Current & former employees said there were problems with poor management, safety standards, & over-reliance on Chinese machinery.

Read the full article here:

'There was so much promise': How Northvolt tumbled into bankruptcy
https://on.ft.com/411hAtE

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Thursday, February 6, 2025

Europe’s battery storage capacity expected to grow ~5X by 2030

Record 3.7 GW of projects were added in 2024, taking Europe's total battery capacity to 10.8 GW.

The expected leap in capacity is unlikely to be enough to meet demand to balance national energy grids, according to industry estimates.

Aurora Energy Research forecast capacity will increase to over 50 gigawatts (GW) by 2030, representing investments worth around 80 billion euros ($82.80 billion).

This would still leave a shortfall, compared with expectations from industry group the European Association for Storage of Energy, which estimates 200 GW will be needed by 2030.
The cost of building a project in Britain has fallen around 30% in two years to just above GBP 500,000/ MW for a 2-hour duration project, resulting in returns of around 12%.

The trend looks set to continue. Average battery prices fell from $153 per kilowatt-hour (kWh) in 2022 to $149 in 2023 and could fall to as low as $80/kWh by 2026, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.

Trading Opportunities 
Now that renewable generation is a bigger share of the power mix, price volatility also offers the prospect of rich returns for traders on wholesale energy markets.

At times when more wind or solar is produced than the grid demands, electricity prices have turned negative and battery operators can be paid to store the power for times of need.

"If you can be paid to charge your battery because prices are negative and then sell the electricity at a premium price when the sun goes down at 6 o'clock, then that can be lucrative for traders," said Roberto Jimenez, executive director at BW ESS, part of global infrastructure firm BW Group.

Data from LSEG shows the number of hours priced at negative or around zero in Britain's day-ahead electricity market hit a record 176 hours in 2024. It forecasts an almost four-fold increase to 792 hours in 2026.

The picture across Europe is similar. The number of German negative hours is forecast to grow from less than 500 hours in 2024 to above 900 hours in 2026, LSEG forecast.

Read the whole article on Reuters here:


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