US crude #Oil exports increased 45% to ~3MM b/d in 2019 @EIA_gov #OOTT #TWIP

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.98 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, an increase of 930,000 b/d (45%) from 2018 (Figure 1). 

The number of destinations for U.S. crude oil exports increased from 41 to 44, and Canada continued to receive the largest share (15%, or 459,000 b/d), followed by South Korea (14%, or 426,000 b/d). U.S. crude oil exports to China, the third-largest export destination in 2018, fell by nearly 100,000 b/d to average 133,000 b/d in 2019. Decreased U.S. crude oil exports to China were more than offset by increases to other destinations, resulting in shifting trade patterns. The growth in U.S. crude oil exports was driven by increasing U.S. crude oil production, expanding domestic infrastructure, and increased global demand for light, low-sulfur crude oils.

#OPEC Ministers agree to cut #Oil production by 1.5MM bopd

Closed session talks continue but headlines leaking out of Vienna from 'delegates' per Bloomberg,confirming the high end scenario floated yesterday morning. Sounds like OPEC (ie Saudi) is going it alone without additional support from Russia after Novak refused to support additional cuts at the JMMC meeting yesterday.

Brent up 70c on the news and +60bps on the day, not exactly a screaming response but step in the right direction. Still waiting on additional details around duration (assume 3M to start) and how many physical barrels 1.5MM translates to given SA already under producing by 0.4MM but combined with 1MM outage from Libya a 1.5MM incremental cut should help to offset a large amount of the China/OECD demand losses, which some estimate to be over 3-3.5MM in 1Q20.

@Vitol sees US #oil output peaking at 14MM bpd in next few years #Shale #OOTT

Vitol sees U.S. oil output peaking at 14 million bpd in next few years: CEO

Thursday, 27 February 2020 | 20:00

Trading house Vitol sees U.S. oil production peaking at around 14 million barrels per day in the next few years, its chief executive told the IP Week. 

"Shale is a very different industry. It takes a great deal to maintain pressure. It takes some 20,000 new wells every year to stand still at current production levels so we have oil production peaking in the new few years because it takes so much operationally just to maintain levels," Vitol CEO Russell Hardy said.

"So that shifts a little of power back to OPEC and OPEC+ but I don't think anyone can afford to be complacent about that."
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Julia Payne; editing by Jason Neely)

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