Oil Bonanza Plunges Guyana Into Political Crisis - The New York Times

The start of oil production in December is expected to nearly double the country's gross domestic product in 2020, according to the International Monetary Fund, and multiply in years to come.

Instead, the winner-takes-all attitude that has marred the elections is weighing heavily on Guyana's economic prospects as it enters the oil age, said Ralph Ramkarran, a prominent local statesman who led a largely Quixotic campaign for a small multiethnic party.

"The thinking here is, 'why share when you're winning?'" he said. "Until that's fixed, it will remain a place of suspicion and economic underdevelopment."

The stakes could not be higher.

Exxon started production in December, and although the payoff in 2020 will be a trickle relative to what will come, it is expected to elevate oil income this year to a third of all government revenue, surpassing all of the country's traditional exports combined, according to the I.M.F.

By the end of the decade, the country's output will reach 1.2 million barrels a day,  according to estimates by the oil consultancy Rystad. That would mean Guyana's production would overtake the current output of its neighbor, the declining oil giant Venezuela.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/05/world/americas/guyana-elections-oil.html

US crude #Oil exports increased 45% to ~3MM b/d in 2019 @EIA_gov #OOTT #TWIP

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 2.98 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019, an increase of 930,000 b/d (45%) from 2018 (Figure 1). 

The number of destinations for U.S. crude oil exports increased from 41 to 44, and Canada continued to receive the largest share (15%, or 459,000 b/d), followed by South Korea (14%, or 426,000 b/d). U.S. crude oil exports to China, the third-largest export destination in 2018, fell by nearly 100,000 b/d to average 133,000 b/d in 2019. Decreased U.S. crude oil exports to China were more than offset by increases to other destinations, resulting in shifting trade patterns. The growth in U.S. crude oil exports was driven by increasing U.S. crude oil production, expanding domestic infrastructure, and increased global demand for light, low-sulfur crude oils.

#OPEC Ministers agree to cut #Oil production by 1.5MM bopd

Closed session talks continue but headlines leaking out of Vienna from 'delegates' per Bloomberg,confirming the high end scenario floated yesterday morning. Sounds like OPEC (ie Saudi) is going it alone without additional support from Russia after Novak refused to support additional cuts at the JMMC meeting yesterday.

Brent up 70c on the news and +60bps on the day, not exactly a screaming response but step in the right direction. Still waiting on additional details around duration (assume 3M to start) and how many physical barrels 1.5MM translates to given SA already under producing by 0.4MM but combined with 1MM outage from Libya a 1.5MM incremental cut should help to offset a large amount of the China/OECD demand losses, which some estimate to be over 3-3.5MM in 1Q20.